Mortgage Rate Movements 8/10/04 - 8/15/04

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DATE

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8/15/04

12:18 pm Markets Closed

8/14/04

2:17 pm Markets Closed

8/13/04

11:10 am The ten year T-bill is down in early trading as economist check out data in today. What is making a splash with mortgage rate data is the high demand for oil and reduced production. Followed up with the international economies slowing growth which is evidence of the onset of a international global slowing of commerce. Add to that a widening trade gap and this is some gloomy data for the economy. The economist are not ignoring the possibility that the markets and economy maybe are not in a recovery and are on the verge of a second recession. All this data may cause the Fed to not raise rates. So mortgage rates may hover lower.

8/12/04

8:31 am The bond is sitting flat as of morning trading, but overnight the London Xchange sold oil at an extreme high price. This is on expectation that demand will remain high and supply will still be short. This may play out in a higher cost for products with the added energy expenses which may slow consumers. Mortgage rates may be reduced by this news initially, but inflation may begin to show up.

8/11/04

8:52 am The raising of interests rates yesterday seems to have caused a minor increase in mortgage rates. After reviewing the fed meetings notes it appears that the reserve will still stay the path of raising .25% till they hit an area of 3.5% to 4%. But they will considered the current recent weakness in the economy over the next few meetings. And that weakness is beginning to show in retail sales. Whether it is the extreme high cost of energy or just apathy the consumer, whose carried this economy, is slowing spending. This will surely result in a very large slump for the economy. We should get preliminary numbers from retailers this week and next, if they show slower retail sales expect  rates to not be raised for a awhile. If the sales are high, be sure the fed will act.

8/10/04

10:42 am Of course today the mortgage rate news is that the fed will be raising rates. Expect some info out on the move by 2:30 pm. The real mortgage rate news will (as stated yesterday) be the feds 'outlook' on the economy which will give everyone a heads up on the future rate increases. As for now, speculation is that it will probably hint to less aggressive in rate raising after the bad news on the economy recently.

2:17 am The Fed raised interest rates by .25%, This was and expected raising, the information that is important is the language that acknowledges that the economy was slow recently. They expect the expansion to continue and that the recent decline was on the High OIL PRICES. But still raising will occur at a 'Measured' paced. Which means they do not have to raise rates at every meeting and they will wait for data at each meeting to determine whether to raise rates.