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DATE
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Mortgage
Rates Information
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8/09/04
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7:42
am Remember the FED is making a
move tomorrow on the mortgage rate
industry by raising lending rates
by .25%. But with recent slower
than expected job growth the market
analyst are expecting the fed to
review it's raising rates policy
for the near future. There is little
doubt that tomorrow will be a .25%
raising of rates but after that
there are no longer any guarantees.
It will be hard for the Fed to ignore
the bad economic numbers. If the
meeting's notes state that the growth
in the economy is slowing and that
the fed needs to be 'cautious in
its adjustments to prime' then the
rates on mortgage loans should be
heading downwards.
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8/08/04
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Markets
Closed
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8/07/04
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Markets
Closed - note
- Tuesday
is the feds' meeting on rates,
considered making a mortgage rate
decision by Monday! There will likely
be a raising in the average mortgage
rate.
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8/06/04
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10:27
am Yesterday's jobless claims were
in and today we got the data for
new jobs added. What will happen
to mortgage rates as a result? Only
32,000 jobs were added, an expected
growth of almost 200,000 was not
even closely reached. This tells
bond traders that a economic growth
cannot be raging when employers
are not hiring. So, bond traders
will push the yield down and price
up on the bonds and mortgage rates
will follow by going down. Not to
mention, with the poor job growth
the fed has little evidence to back
up a "needed measured"
raising of rates. Maybe the fed
will just not raise them.
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8/05/04
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8:25
am Jobless claims held steady for
last week. Of course workers without
jobs is a negative to the economy
but at least the numbers in today
should show that last weeks claims
did not rise. Combine that information
with some earnings reports out on
some major retailers and the gains
in the mortgage rate (lower rates)
market from yesterday should be
erased. Expect the bond to rally
on the better news today and rates
should slope upwards.
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8/04/04
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8:06
am Mortgage applications were down
2%. Oil prices continue to rise
and consumer spending is still down.
All things considered, the economy
appears to be showing serious
slowing. Higher gas prices will
stop consumer spending and mortgage
applications slowing down is another
sign that the consumer is weary
about spending money. This data
is putting pressure on the 10yr
- T-bill pushing the yield down
in early trading. Which should reflect
in a minor lowering of rates. Of
course the mortgage lenders are
very weary about lowering rates
while the fed talks about raising
them. The mortgage rate Wait
and See game is on.
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8/03/04
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8:57
am Crude
oil prices are rising due to the
belief that OPEC can't or will not
produce enough oil to meet the consumers
needs. Income growth for last
month was down almost .8% lead by
weak auto buying. This means the
consumer, who has kept this economy
moving over the last several years,
is slowing spending. But hold on
- Mortgage rate traders are waiting
for July's numbers to arrive. They
believe that retail sales will be
up compared to last year at the
same time.
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8/02/04
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7:59
am Due to domestic issues the exchanges
are down and the price on the ten
year T bill is up. Usually when
the T-bill price rise the mortgage
rate traders react by lowing the
rates. This probably will not occur
because the markets are moving based
on non structural data.
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8/01/04
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Markets Closed
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7/31/04
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Markets Closed
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7/30/04
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9:19
am The July economic information
shows that the expansion of the
economy is down. Numbers "came
in" showing a slower pace of
economic growth lead by the consumers'
slow spending. In the short term,
this should place the bonds yield
in retreat and lower the yield,
pushing mortgage rates down. It
appears that the majority of GDP slowing
is from the less than expected new
jobs and the incredibly fast raising
oil prices, these two leave less
and little money in the consumers
pocket but should keep inflation
in check and mortgage rates low.
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