Mortgage Rate Movements 7/22/04 -7/29/04

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DATE

Mortgage Rates Information

7/29/04

9:28 am Jobless claims numbers show that there was an increase over the last week. This was not expected but is most likely not going to effect the market. Many market traders write off this increase in unemployment because they consider it "seasonal" and a structural expected flaw in the economy. Based on manufacturers having to retool for the new years products. Mortgage rates will probably still continue on the path of yesterday and increase at a slow, but daily, pace.

7/28/04

9:57 am The durable good orders were in and they show a heighten ordering or products by consumers. This (although not yet as of this commentary) should put pressure on the 10 year T bill and force rates to move up. The massive amount of data in yesterday had pushed the yield higher on the ten year T-bill and it looks like the news today will do the same. Mortgage rates should go up and the fed has predicted several .25% raises in the near future.

7/27/04

 12:38 New Home sales slipped but the reports show that consumer confidence is up. The home sales down was expected and somewhat predicted by the chair. So the bond market will move up on the confidence report and cause mortgage rates to raise.

7/26/04

10:24 am Existing home sales were up. Of course this will rally the mortgage rate market to a higher level. But wait and SEE. New home sales were down and construction was down. Over the long run this will slow the economy because the existing home sales will have to slow as the inventory decreases. But as for now, the mortgage rate market will rally on this news and there will be a slight raising in rates.

7/25/04

Markets closed

7/24/04

Markets closed

7/23/04

9:49 am More economic numbers in - and the earnings for major U.S. companies are not looking great. Several large companies, including the main software distributor in America, has shown less than expected earnings this quarter. This should,in the morning at least, Push investors to the 10 year T-bill and cause mortgage rates to probably adjust down. But not by much. The rates are almost in a holding pattern since the feds spoke at congress. We need MAJOR economic data to turn the mortgage rate market in either direction.

7/22/04

10:14 am The "bad earnings" season has arrived for corporate's. Mostly, the tech stocks are showing losses instead of the expected gains. Expect more revenue reports  today and the remainder of the week. These losses caused the mortgage rate traders to move to invest in the treasuries causing a minor adjustment in price (higher) to the 10 year T-bill. We would expect this to be sustained if more losses appear in earnings today. What may counteract this is the Unemployment numbers in. They show new jobless claims were down 11,000. These two competing market data reports may wash each other out and keep rates steady.

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