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DATE
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Mortgage
Rates Information
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6/22/04
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9:11 am Today may be a rough mortgage rate day. Many major traders have decided to stop buying treasury notes and stay on a "wait and see" format prior to next week's feds meeting on interest and "mortgage rates". There is little doubt that a quarter percent increase on rates is in the future. The question is the chairman's language at that meeting. The mortgage rate market is on a holding pattern to see if there is a hint, after mortgage rates have been raised, if there is a fast or slower tendency for future mortgage rate raising. All we can do id review the data and wait and see.
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6/21/04
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3:38 pm Resuming oil exports from countries will most likely force mortgage rate traders to lien towards an increase in inflation. So rates should slowly inch upwards today. But no other major market data to on the horizon to change mortgage rates.
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6/18/04
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8:33 am Early reports this morning show the expected trade gap at a record high. This is not good for our economy, This means our jobs are leaving and we are buying foreign made products. All equates to our money moving out of this country. Mortgage rates may go down on this news. Because it shows that even consumer spending being up,the "long term gain" to the economy may not be good as the money leaves. So as mortgage rate index's observe this rates may move down. Combine the exporting of our economy with major recent worries over crude oil prices as international distribution problems occur, This could all equate a lowering mortgage rate scenario. There is little doubt the fed will lower mortgage rates but the economy may not currently need an aggressivemortgage rate raising by the fed.
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6/17/04
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9:06 am Initial weekly jobless claims were down and consumer prices were up. This would be a clear evidence that a mortgage rate increase will be done by the feds. Mainly : speculators on mortgage rates believe this is the evidence for a more aggressive mortgage rate increase by the feds. But It has appeared in the recent past that the fed chair Greenspan appears to believe that a long term slow economic improvement is on the horizon. And that any fluctuation in the core numbers (as seen this morning) is almost irrelevant to a long term slow improvement. This is the slow and steady rate increases that Greenspan made clear yesterday in his hearings at congress.
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6/16/04
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11:21 am
Industrial productivity was up- This was higher than expected after yesterday's good news for mortgage rate market. Construction and builders permit were up for may. This may increase was well-- kinda expected-- but the market still reacted and lost about half of the mortgage rate changes that occurred yesterday. Yesterday Greenspan was sworn in for his final term as fed chair and told the committee that
``Inflationary pressures are not likely to be a serious concern in the period ahead.'' meaning that he will follow the plains laid out for most likely a .25% raise in rates
The current mortgage rate market has already worked this factor in and maybe it will rest easy with this clear statement from the fed that the economy is far from running away with inflation and that any mortgage rate increases will be down at a slow and steady base.
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6/15/04
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11:55 am
Good news on the mortgage rate front this morning. The
CPI numbers have come in. This is the consumer price index which tells the average raising or lowering of prices consumers pay for products .Of course as always, If you have been following these updates, you know it will take time for any changes to mortgage rates (of course lowering) takes time after the market has digested the information. It looks like with prices lowering this will keep inflation in check.
Inflation is the main current reason why mortgage rate will go up
because the fed would be forced the raise rates to fend off inflation. So as the CPI came in lower. The fed may relax on raising and not fear inflation.
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6/14/04
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11:59 am U.S. trade deficets expand, very unexpectively.And the yeild on the 10 yeartbill is up.But with all of this retail sales have been up for the seventh stait month. What does all this mean. Well, It is clear that fed will have to act soon to scale off all inflation factors. Highier mortgage rates is what it all equates to. As the fed raises over night klending. Mortgage rate and refinance rates will move upwards.
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6/10/04
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9:22 am Major bond trading mortgage rate retailers state today that they believe the fed will have to raise rates. They believe that by years end the fed overnight lending to mortgage bankers rate will be raise one full percent due to the economic growth.
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