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DATE
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Mortgage
Rates Information
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12/15/04
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12:35
pm
- The bond yield is going down.
Although, the Fed raised rates yesterday,
the markets have become weak. The
dollar is weakening and foreign
investors are worried about the
trade gap and the trade deficit.
The rates are holding TODAY.
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12/14/04
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10:59
am
- FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING TODAY,
Expect the fed to raise rates a
.25% and to state that they will
continue on increases at a measured
pace. This means mortgage rates
will most likely jump higher today.
Although, there are more imports
from China and less manufacturing
here (trade gap increasing), the
market speculators believe the economy
is still on an up swing. Market
traders are not waiting on the fed
and they are pushing the yield on
the bonds higher.
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12/13/04
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11:52
am
- Early retail sales show that the
consumer is spending this holiday
season. The markets were concerned
that the recent lag may cause there
to be stagnant holiday season
sales. But the sales both in store
and online are up 1-3 percent and
It looks ok to the markets. Expect
mortgage rates to hold steady unless
some new data appears on the horizon.
(Fed data)
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12/12/04
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Sunday
- The mortgage markets for rates
are closed
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12/11/04
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Saturday
-The mortgage markets for rates
are closed
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12/10/04
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11:52
am The dollar is as strong as it
has been in the last several months.
Along with that news is higher consumer
confidence. Usually high consumer
confidence will push mortgage rates
higher but the outlook that OPEC
will cut production and keep oil
prices up will keep the mortgage
rates from surging higher. Remember,
Higher oil prices act like a rate
increase and slow the economy. So,
there will be less need for the
Fed to act to raise rates, as long
as OPEC keeps production low and
prices high.
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12/9/04
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10:09
am Higher unemployment than expected
- numbers have arrived this
morning. Claims last week came in
about 22,000 higher than expected.
To follow up on that news is that
oil prices have once again climbed
their way back up. This is based
on concerns over heating demands.
Expect mortgage rate traders to
push rates down today!
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12/8/04
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12:10
pm The yield on the ten year T-bill
is easing from recent highs. The
majority of the reason for this
reverse is the strength of the dollar.
The dollar is rising compared to
foreign funds like the yen or the
euro. Keep in mind that the Fed's
bond auction is today. As they sell
more debt they may stop the downward
yield movement and turn it to a
higher path. If this happens mortgage
rate indexes will be pushed higher.
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12/7/04
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10:42
am This morning the Treasuries are
moving higher on the yield as they
prepare for the Fed to start raising
rates. The Fed is selling 15 billion
in debt tomorrow to raise capital
and this to requires yields to be
raised in order to pay on the interest.
So higher rates are in the near
future barring weak economic data.
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12/6/04
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11:41
am Well the 12/3/04 reductions of
oil prices are on the reverse today.
This is based on concerns about
production in Nigeria and Norway
add to that OPEC may cut production.
Prices are being pushed up. The
higher prices of last month have
resulted in a less that spectacular
retail sales month. All and all
the market is not to happy today
on the data slowly streaming in.
Expect mortgage rates to hold steady.
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12/5/04
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3:09
pm Markets Closed
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12/4/04
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3:09
pm Markets Closed
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12/3/04
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9:34
am Lots of economic data to mull
over and the markets are reversing
there path of recent. The first
report was in this morning on the
new jobs added to the economy. Employers added 112,000 workers in November, This
was no where close to the expected
lowest estimates for new job
adding of 180,000. It may be due
to high oil and raw materials prices.
Since, the weeks previous data was
so strong and cost of oil had reduced
(prior to today), mortgage rate
speculators are reversing their
steady belief of higher mortgage
rates. The ten year T- bill is easing
on the yield and rates should slow
there pace of going higher.
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12/2/04
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11:56
am December retail sales forecast
are lower than expected. Good news
for mortgage rate seekers RIGHT?
No. The other data *in* is pushing
the markets to higher mortgage rates.
Data showing oil is stable and that
there will be no more need to increase
supply for the winters demand has
eased prices. A quick mathematical
calculation : (Factory
orders are up .5%.) Lower oil prices
+ factory orders up = Inflation
on the rise and mortgage rates will
get raised. The higher rates of
this last week will continue to
be occurring and mortgage rates
will rise until other data showing
the economy is slowing appear on
the horizon.
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12/1/04
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11:36
am There is much data in the markets
to review today! Consumer spending
data shows spending rose. This may
be the holiday seasonal spending
but the markets are assuming it
is part of a recovery. Orders are
higher for manufacturers and, as
of today, Oil prices are easing
from and unexpected increase in
reserves to meet the winter higher
demands. This data will lead to
higher mortgage rate movement since
all this data reflects higher inflation
is right around the corner.
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11/30/04
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2:12
pm Consumer confidence is at a low.
Mortgage rates continue to move
up on the news that exports are
higher and the economy is still
moving outward even though confidence
is slowing. As the economy expands
the Fed is expected to raise rates
and mortgage rates will follow higher.
So the rate market has been surging
the last two days and mortgage rates
are going up fast!
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11/29/04
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11:20
am The dollar is declining in its
value compared to foreign funds.
There for many foreign investors
are pulling out of the bond market
and investing it is foreign (stronger
valued) money. So the foreign investors
are pulling out capital and causing
the yield to go down on the bond.
This in turn is putting pressure
on mortgage rate markets and rates
will move upwards.
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